Israeli vote could swing U.S. election

"If the election is close, and I presume it is, the overseas vote could be the deciding factor and Israel could make or break the election," said David Froehlich, former overseas voting coordinator and honorary chairman of Democrats Abroad in Israel. "The country is split down the middle and the votes coming from Israel have the potential to make the difference."

Though most American-Israelis hail from heavily Democratic urban centers such as New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles, where electoral votes will almost definitely go in favor of Senator John Kerry, a large number of potential voters hail from contested areas, where the margin between candidates is razor thin. Polls this week in New Jersey found Kerry to be leading by a margin of 1.4 percent, and the fact that local Republicans registered 2,000 of its residents here is significant, they say.

In Florida, another key battleground state, President Bush was leading by an average of 3.4 percent this week, and Republicans are hoping that the 1,500 Floridians they registered will help clinch that victory. "I think we all realize from 2000 that a few hundred overseas votes can make a difference," said Ron Dermer, a political consultant in Jerusalem and member of Republicans Abroad in Israel, in reference to the president's 537 margin of victory last election.

An estimated 7 million Americans live outside the U.S., but the number of eligible voters among them is unknown. Israel ranks fourth in the world, after Mexico, Canada, and the U.K., for its number of U.S. citizens and estimates put the number of eligible voters here at 100,000.

American Israelis, like their Jewish counterparts back in the U.S., vote in higher numbers on average and, according to Kory Bardash, chair of Republicans Abroad in Israel, the number of voters here is double that in other expatriate strongholds. He also points to the revival of local Republican efforts in recent months and his party's unprecedented appeal to ultra-Orthodox Americans living here as proof of large and above-average American voter interest here.

Before 2000, a few hundred votes in a state like Ohio may have been dismissed as negligible, but political activists on both sides refuse to overlook the lesson of Bush's victory four years ago. Only an estimated 600 Florida votes were cast from Israel in the previous election, compared to the thousands of Floridians who have registered this year.

"In the 2000 election, the 6,000 Florida residents living in Israel could easily have changed the result of the election," Sheldon Schorer, a long-time member of Democrats Abroad in Israel said. "This message brought home to Americans at home and abroad, how important the overseas vote can be. Because of a low turnout, Israel did not change the 2000 result." The caveat, he says, is that Americans won't let voter apathy determine the outcome of the election again so that in this upcoming election, "the American voter in Israel will play an important role in determining the next president."

Bardash agrees that the American-Israeli vote, which he predicts to be overwhelmingly pro-Bush, will be significant in the outcome of the election, though he's certain it will help clinch the president's victory. Even in the heavily Democratic state of New York, recent reports found the margin between the candidates to be dwindling, and the American-Israeli vote, he says, could be potentially significant.

"Half of the people we're registering are New Yorkers and though I still think the Democrats will win it [the state], these numbers begin to resonate," Bardash said. "Each voter here also impacts a number of Jewish voters in the U.S." He also points to the swing states New Jersey and Ohio, both homes respectively to the well-established ultra-Orthodox yeshivas with hundreds, if not thousands, or graduates studying here.

"If 2000 is any indication, and I think it is," he added, "Israel will make a definite impact."

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